Thursday, June 17, 2010

Paranoia Perhaps

I've been coming across a lot of comments lately across the interweb that suggest that the Deepwater Horizon leak is far more of a clusterf@ck than previously stated.  There's some evidence pointing to possibility that the explosion that caused the leak has damaged both the casing of the well and the surrounding sea bed and efforts to cap the well will actually cause a much more enormous leak.  This could possibly be why the top kill effort was halted, because BP realized that capping the leak would create a worse problem.  One post I stumbled on yesterday from a thread on slate.com  seems to be pretty convincing.  They quote an interview with Shell Oil President John Hofmeister.
[Question] What are the chances that the well casing below the sea floor has been compromised, and that gas and oil are coming up the outside of the well casing, eroding the surrounding soft rock. Could this lead to a catastrophic geological failure, unstoppable even by the relief wells?
John Hofmeister: This is what some people fear has occurred. It is also why the “top kill” process was halted. If the casing is compromised the well is that much more difficult to shut down, including the risk that the relief wells may not be enough. If the relief wells do not result in stopping the flow, the next and drastic step is to implode the well on top of itself, which carries other risks as well.
The other article that was linked by gawker.com this morning is long, detailed, and sounds too horrifying to be true.  Take it with a grain of salt, these theories could just be theories, extremely convincing and plausible theories.  Basically this post explains that BP has been prolonging this and playing a waiting game because the well can never be capped and will most likely have to drain itself out, which by his estimates could be around 2 billion barrels or more.
It means they will never cap the gusher after the wellhead. They cannot...the more they try and restrict the oil gushing out the bop?...the more it will transfer to the leaks below. Just like a leaky garden hose with a nozzle on it. When you open up the nozzle?...it doesn't leak so bad, you close the nozzle?...it leaks real bad,
same dynamics.

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